Crime and Safety in Caerau
Last updated: 07 Jun 2026
Caerau is the most dangerous small town in the preserved county of South Glamorgan, and is the third most dangerous overall out of South Glamorgan's 55 towns, villages, and cities. The overall crime rate in Caerau in 2026 is 116 crimes per 1,000 people. This compares poorly to South Glamorgan's overall crime rate, coming in 58% higher than the South Glamorgan rate of 73 per 1,000 daytime population. For England, Wales, and Northern Ireland as a whole, Caerau is among the top 20 most dangerous small towns, and the 256th most dangerous location out of all towns, cities, and villages.
In March 2026, Caerau had the worst crime rate in South Glamorgan for drugs, with 8 crimes reported and a crime rate of 0.65 per 1,000 daytime population. February 2025 was also a bad month for Caerau residents, when it was South Glamorgan's most dangerous area for anti-social behaviour, recording 38 crimes at a rate of 3.1 per 1,000 daytime population.
The most common crimes in Caerau are violence and sexual offences, with 605 offences during 2026, giving a crime rate of 49. This is 0.49% lower than 2025's figure of 608 offences and a difference of 0.26 from 2025's crime rate of 50. Caerau's least common crime is theft from the person, with 7 offences recorded in 2026, the same as 2025's figure of 7 crimes.
Caerau 2026 Crime Scorecard
Most Dangerous
Small Towns, South Glamorgan
88% higher, regional crime rate
Wales
61% higher, national crime rate
England, Wales & NI
Local Crime in Context
As of April 2026, the crime rate in Caerau is 88% higher than Wales and 61% higher than the England, Wales & Northern Ireland overall figure.
Caerau Crime Rate Over Time
| Caerau | |
| Wales | |
| England, Wales & NI |
Caerau Crime Map
Incidents mapped in Caerau represent the time frame between January 2016 and April 2026. Each point on the map represents an area where crimes have been recorded locally.
Use Crime Map
Hover over a point to see a breakdown of crime types recorded at that location. You can also filter by individual crime types, or use a combinations of offences to visualise the data you need.
See How Caerau Compares
You can compare Caerau's crime statistics against any other town, village, or city from across the country. Search for a location's name below to see how they stack up.
Introduction to Caerau's crime statistics
This crime profile provides a detailed view of crime and safety around Caerau up to April 2026, the most recent data release available. The crime figures and statistics have been calculated across each of Caerau's 206 postcodes using three area sizes for comparison:
- Within a Five-Minute Walk
- Within a Ten-Minute Walk
- Within a Fifteen-Minute Walk
Individual crime risk scores and index figures are for the 12-month period ending April 2026 unless otherwise stated.
CrimeRate Insights
Looking into a specific address in Caerau? CrimeRate Insights reports convert raw numbers into practical insight for any location, from single addresses and postcodes, up to major towns and cities.
Crime rates don’t happen by themselves; they follow people and patterns. Where crowds gather - near pubs and late-night venues, around the station, by supermarkets and forecourts - incidents naturally concentrate.
That doesn’t mean an area is "bad"; it usually means footfall is higher.
Your report explores these factors in a calm, non-judgemental way, putting the numbers in context and helping you spot what’s typical for places like this.
Crime Risk Scores
Caerau • 12 Months Ending April 2026
The typical five-minute walk within Caerau has a crime risk score of 772. This is based on analysis of 206 nearby areas within Caerau, with "most" referring to roughly two thirds of the nearby locations.
Crime risk scores are on a scale of 1 to 1,000 and consider the severity of the crimes involved, as determined by sentencing guidelines. A score of 1 represents the lowest risk, and 1,000 the highest risk. This approach ensures that - unlike overall crime rate figures - bicycle theft is not given the same importance in Caerau's risk scores as, for example, robbery, or violence & sexual offences.
Within a five-minute walk of the typical location in Caerau, crime risk scores are typically around 772, while in South Glamorgan they are average 482.
Areas within a ten-minute walk typically see crime risk scores of 808 (500 for South Glamorgan), and scores within a fifteen-minute walk are most often around 775 (South Glamorgan 503).
Trends in Crime Risk
Caerau
Calculated via Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess, the Seasonality Adjusted line represents the original data with seasonality subtracted, and the Trend line has been plotted unadjusted. Overall trend direction has been identified using the Mann-Kendall trend test, and rate calculated from the slope of the best-fit line identified from linear regression.
The 10-year trend indicates a decrease of 14% in Caerau's crime risk score. This is potentially a strong signal of how the crime risk is evolving. Cross-referencing with major cultural events and Covid's impact during this time is advised.
The five-year trend may be static; no significant trend was identified in Caerau's crime risk scores during this timeframe.
Over the last year, Caerau's crime risk score has shown an upward trend of approximately 3.7%, indicating that the risk profile is going up. This is an extremely short time period for crime trend analysis, and caution should be exercised when interpreting this figure.
Crime Rates and Indexes
Caerau
The CrimeRate Index shows how crime rates compare against the national average.
1.0 equals the average
2.0 is double
3.0 triple
0.5 is half and
0.25 a quarter.
Highest Crime Rates
Caerau • 12 Months Ending April 2026
Excluding other crime and other theft because their geographic location is often not relevant, anti-social behaviour as its definition is too wide, and bicycle theft for its specificity.
Public Order offences have a crime rate of 15 reports per 1,000 people in Caerau, which is 2.64 times the national average. This figure is calculated from 188 crime reports logged by South Wales Police during the 12-month period ending April 2026.
For the same period, South Wales Police recorded 18 reports of Possession of Weapons in Caerau, resulting in a crime rate of 1.44 reports per 1,000, and a CrimeRate Index of 2.32.
The crime rate for Shoplifting is 2.09 times the national average at 15 reports per 1,000. This is from 183 crime reports reported to South Wales Police.
Most Significant 3-Year Increases in Crime Types
Caerau
Excluding other crime and other theft, anti-social behaviour, and bicycle theft, and calculated with the same STL method described in Trends in Crime Risk, using CrimeRate Index figures to identify crime types that are trending above or below the national average, and the analysis timeframe limited to the last three years.
Robbery offences are trending upwards, and have a CrimeRate Index of 1.60 for the month of April 2026.
Three years ago, the monthly Robbery CrimeRate Index was 1.89 times the national average, and the current trend indicates an increase of 15% over this timeframe.
Drugs offences are trending upwards, and have a CrimeRate Index of 1.78 for the month of April 2026.
Three years ago, the monthly Drugs CrimeRate Index was 1.57 times the national average, and the current trend indicates an increase of 13% over this timeframe.
Vehicle Crime offences are trending upwards, and have a CrimeRate Index of 1.63 for the month of April 2026.
Three years ago, the monthly Vehicle Crime CrimeRate Index was 0.75 times the national average, and the current trend indicates an increase of 117% over this timeframe.
Most Significant 3-Year Decreases in Crime Types
Caerau
Calculated with the same methodology as the largest increases section above.
Criminal Damage and Arson offences are trending downwards, and have a CrimeRate Index of 2.56 for the month of April 2026.
Three years ago, the monthly Criminal Damage and Arson CrimeRate Index was 3.41 times the national average, and the current trend indicates a decrease of 25% over this timeframe.
Burglary offences are trending downwards, and have a CrimeRate Index of 0.33 for the month of April 2026.
Three years ago, the monthly Burglary CrimeRate Index was 0.27 times the national average, and the current trend indicates a decrease of 22% over this timeframe.
Violence and Sexual Offences are trending downwards, and have a CrimeRate Index of 1.73 for the month of April 2026.
Three years ago, the monthly Violence and Sexual Offences CrimeRate Index was 1.65 times the national average, and the current trend indicates a decrease of 4.8% over this timeframe.
Crime Type Breakdown & Heat Map
Caerau • 12 Months Ending April 2026
Size and colour reflect the CrimeRate Index figures for each type of crime.
Caerau | South Glamorgan | Wales | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crime Type | Count | Rate | Index | Count | Rate | Index | Count | Rate | Index |
| Anti-Social Behaviour | 241 | 19.60 | 1.39 | 6,196 | 10.20 | 0.72 | 37,683 | 10.96 | 0.78 |
| Bicycle Theft | 13 | 1.04 | 1.93 | 851 | 1.40 | 1.92 | 1,599 | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| Burglary | 27 | 2.18 | 0.84 | 1,514 | 2.50 | 0.80 | 6,704 | 1.94 | 0.62 |
| Criminal Damage and Arson | 137 | 11.16 | 1.78 | 3,860 | 6.36 | 1.01 | 21,045 | 6.12 | 0.97 |
| Drugs | 53 | 4.33 | 1.40 | 1,383 | 2.27 | 0.73 | 7,344 | 2.14 | 0.69 |
| Other Crime | 38 | 3.08 | 1.81 | 1,100 | 1.81 | 0.98 | 6,008 | 1.76 | 0.95 |
| Other Theft | 74 | 6.02 | 1.06 | 2,840 | 4.67 | 0.82 | 13,307 | 3.88 | 0.68 |
| Possession of Weapons | 18 | 1.44 | 2.32 | 507 | 0.83 | 0.98 | 2,296 | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| Public Order | 188 | 15.31 | 2.64 | 5,404 | 8.90 | 1.53 | 23,747 | 6.91 | 1.19 |
| Robbery | 16 | 1.28 | 1.62 | 675 | 1.13 | 0.96 | 1,461 | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| Shoplifting | 183 | 14.88 | 2.09 | 6,020 | 9.90 | 1.39 | 19,180 | 5.58 | 0.78 |
| Theft From the Person | 7 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 365 | 0.60 | 0.39 | 1,019 | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| Vehicle Crime | 64 | 5.21 | 1.21 | 3,372 | 5.54 | 1.29 | 8,617 | 2.52 | 0.59 |
| Violence and Sexual Offences | 605 | 49.25 | 1.62 | 16,509 | 27.17 | 0.89 | 99,099 | 28.83 | 0.95 |
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Total Crime by Year
Caerau | South Glamorgan | Wales | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Count | Rate | Index | Count | Rate | Index | Count | Rate | Index |
| 2026 | 1,423 | 115.74 | 1.66 | 44,400 | 73.08 | 1.02 | 211,426 | 61.53 | 0.85 |
| 2025 | 1,398 | 114.62 | 1.61 | 47,355 | 77.87 | 1.05 | 257,229 | 75.28 | 1.02 |
| 2024 | 1,617 | 133.54 | 1.84 | 49,190 | 81.40 | 1.08 | 238,672 | 70.43 | 0.93 |
| 2023 | 1,505 | 125.36 | 1.62 | 46,540 | 77.98 | 0.99 | 255,615 | 75.95 | 0.96 |
| 2022 | 1,550 | 130.80 | 1.74 | 44,438 | 75.81 | 0.99 | 245,565 | 73.85 | 0.96 |
| 2021 | 1,524 | 129.02 | 1.93 | 40,024 | 68.75 | 1.00 | 217,266 | 65.68 | 0.96 |
| 2020 | 1,438 | 122.33 | 1.69 | 46,163 | 79.92 | 1.08 | 237,502 | 72.15 | 0.97 |
| 2019 | 1,395 | 119.06 | 1.61 | 47,974 | 83.50 | 1.10 | 244,905 | 74.66 | 0.98 |
| 2018 | 1,207 | 102.98 | 1.51 | 45,316 | 79.06 | 1.11 | 218,341 | 66.57 | 0.94 |
| 2017 | 1,179 | 101.21 | 1.62 | 43,800 | 76.83 | 1.20 | 199,059 | 60.80 | 0.95 |
| 2016 | 408 | 35.06 | 1.90 | 13,219 | 23.20 | 1.22 | 61,849 | 18.94 | 0.99 |
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Caerau Compared to Nearby Small Towns
12 Months Ending Apr 2026
| Small Town | Total Crimes | Crime Rate | Rate Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riverside | 1,197 | 122.11 | 6% more dangerous |
| Caerau | 1,423 | 115.74 | - |
| Ely | 1,548 | 97.15 | 16% safer |
| Grangetown | 2,176 | 88.25 | 24% safer |
| Llanrumney | 1,035 | 81.70 | 29% safer |
| Butetown | 2,483 | 84.19 | 27% safer |
| Llandaff North | 650 | 78.89 | 32% safer |
| Canton | 1,301 | 72.75 | 37% safer |
| Rumney | 699 | 69.90 | 40% safer |
| Trowbridge | 1,592 | 73.16 | 37% safer |
| Fairwater | 1,003 | 71.10 | 39% safer |
| Pentwyn | 555 | 61.09 | 47% safer |
| Llanishen | 813 | 62.15 | 46% safer |
Comparing Caerau to the UK's Major Cities
12 Months Ending Apr 2026
| City Name | Crime Rate | Rate Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 79.55 | 31% safer |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | 82.69 | 29% safer |
| Sheffield | 84.09 | 27% safer |
| Leicester | 97.87 | 15% safer |
| Bristol | 104.64 | 10% safer |
| Birmingham | 105.05 | 9% safer |
| Liverpool | 106.48 | 8% safer |
| Leeds | 107.10 | 7% safer |
| Nottingham | 107.74 | 7% safer |
| Caerau | 115.74 | - |
| Westminster | 125.00 | 8% more dangerous |
CrimeRate Pro
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You can find out more, or get a CrimeRate Insights report that includes further analysis.
Offences In and Around Caerau's Parks & Leisure Spaces
Limited to spaces in Caerau that are named and have had crimes recorded within their boundaries in the 12 months to Apr 2026.
| Name | ASB | Drugs | Public Order | Robbery | VSO | All Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowbridge Road Allotments | 6 | - | 3 | - | 25 | 19 |
| Canolfan Hamdden y Gorllewin | 6 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 29 | 15 |
| Trelai Park | 17 | 1 | 8 | - | 32 | 11 |
| Ely Great Farm Allotments | 1 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 9 |
| Western Cemetery | 11 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 37 | 20 |
Recent Crimes in Caerau
The 20 most recent crime reports in Caerau.
| Date | Crime Type | Location | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Anti-social behaviour | On or near Pyle Road | |
| April 2026 | Anti-social behaviour | On or near Newgale Place | |
| April 2026 | Anti-social behaviour | On or near Clos Ceirios | |
| April 2026 | Criminal damage and arson | On or near Caerau Road | |
| April 2026 | Criminal damage and arson | On or near Clos Rhedyn | |
| April 2026 | Public order | On or near Clos Ceirios | |
| April 2026 | Public order | On or near Clos Ceirios | |
| April 2026 | Public order | On or near Clos Ceirios | |
| April 2026 | Public order | On or near Clos Ceirios | |
| April 2026 | Shoplifting | On or near Clos Ceirios | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Newgale Place | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Heol Carnau | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Heol Carnau | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Church Road | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Clos Ceirios | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Dyfrig Close | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Prendergast Place | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Church Road | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Epsom Close | |
| April 2026 | Violence and sexual offences | On or near Church Road |
Methodology & Data Sources
Caerau Crime Report
Data Sources & Processing
Every month, CrimeRate processes crime reports from data.police.uk, the UK's official provider of open crime report data. Each crime report includes anonymised coordinates, most often "snapped" to the middle of the nearest street, or to the nearest major landmark. The reports also include the month and year the crime was reported, as well as the type of crime.
Data releases on data.police.uk happen once a month, with a two-month delay. This means that, for example, crimes reported in Caerau during July 2026 will typically become available in September 2026. The latest release is for Apr 2026 and was released in Jun 2026. To provide current and historical crime statistics, CrimeRate processed 61,669,232 crime reports for the latest release.
Caerau Data Points
For Caerau, CrimeRate uses the geographic boundaries provided by The Office for National Statistics in the December 2023 release of their Parishes and Non Civil Parished Areas dataset, using the PARNCP23CD column value W04000839.
Due to the 2021 Census being conducted during a UK-wide Coronavirus lockdown, the daytime population figures released so far cannot be relied on for purposes such as comparing crime rates. Instead, CrimeRate uses Caerau's daytime - or "workday" - population of 9,538 from the ONS 2011 Census for calculations throughout the site.
All geographic boundaries use the full resolution - extent of the realm versions where provided to avoid missing crime reports near coastlines and rivers - the banks of the Thames in particular - that would otherwise not be included when using the clipped to the coastline datasets.
Calculating Crime Rates
CrimeRate locates the UK region, county, and town/city/village locality for each crime report, and calculates the crime rate by taking the sum of all crime reports, dividing it by the locality's daytime / "workday" population, and multiplying the result by 1,000 to get the crime rate per 1,000.
Crime Risk Score Calculations
CrimeRate calculates crime counts for local, nearby, and wider areas for every postcode in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The postcodes locations are deduplicated by a process that ensures distinct points are approximately 50 metres apart. This process removes the bias that would otherwise come from counting the same crimes several times in heavily populated areas.
Using a custom algorithm developed in-house, CrimeRate applies a crime severity weighting to each area's crime counts, based on the type of crime reported. This increases or decreases the crime count, or zeroes it out entirely, depending on the crime type. A separate crime severity rate is then calculated, standardised, and scaled to fit the crime risk score range of 1 to 1,000, with 1 being the lowest score, and 1,000 the highest.
Crime risk scores undergo further analysis per town, city, and village plus other areas including police forces and neighbourhoods. CrimeRate uses percentiles to work out the most common range of crime risk scores in each locality. This includes identifying the high and low bounds where approximately 68% of scores fall, and finding the median (50th percentile) for easy reference.
The crime types with a weight of zero are: Anti-Social Behaviour; Bicycle Theft; Other Crime; Other Theft; and Shoplifting. The highest weights to are assigned to Violence & Sexual Offences, and the lowest to Vehicle Crime.
Frequently Asked Questions
Crime in Caerau